Mr Agbor
Let me start by saying that I am not an economist hence don't expect flashy references to stuff like GDP, Emerging Economies, FDI Opportunities and all other fancy words used by World Bank, ADB and other IMF types. I will lay it out as simply as I think I can. Cameroon is endowed with an abundance of Natural "Gifts": Excess Land/Fertile Soil and Natural Forest, Water Falls, a vibrant and intelligent/averagely well educated young population.
If Paul Biya decides to make me his Prime Minister (a very strong possibility since he says he is not going anywhere any time soon) and actually gives me the authority to function as a REAL PM; these will be my priorities for the first 100 days. If I don't deliver what I promise within that time frame; I should be Fired.
First Month: Selecting and putting a Progressive Government in place. Members of my Cabinet will comprise Ladies and Gentlemen of impeccable and irreproachable character aged between 30 to 50 years (who must publicly declare their Assets before starting their job). There will be no more than 15 Ministerial Departments:
Mishe Fon as PM will be in charge National Security and Intelligence;
1) Minister of Local Government in charge of State and Social Services;
2) Minister of Finance +Budget; 3) Minister of Health in charge of Sports and Recreation; 4) Minister of Defense also in charge of Youths and Compulsory Military Service; 5) Minister of Police in charge of Immigration, Safety and Corrections; 6) Minister of Trade and Commerce; 7) Minister of Justice also in charge of Communication and Court system 8) Minister of Foreign Affairs & Diaspora; 9) Minister of Environment also in charge of Housing and Town Planning; 10) Minister of Small and Medium Size Business, Statistics and Retiree Affairs; 11) Minister of Industries; Energy and Transport 12) Minister of Telecommunication; 13) Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, Livestock and Fisheries; 14) Minister of Local Government and Civil Defense; 15) Minister of Education, Scientific Research and Universities
By the end of the month, each Minister will have to present a POA (Plan of Action) for the next 100 days in Power Point format with questions and answers (all televised) from the Public. A SWOT analysis will be undertaken at the end of the period.
1st YEAR: BROAD GOVERNMENTAL ORIENTATION (ROAD NETWORK)
Effective (not Political) Construction of a Dual Carriage road between Douala and Yaounde, Yaounde and Bafoussam, Limbe/Douala, Douala/Bafoussam, Bafoussam/Bamenda, Ngaoundere/Garoua/Maroua/Koussiri, Buea/Kumba, Bamenda/Mamfe/Eyumedjock, Bamenda/Kumbo? Nkambe
2nd YEAR: MASSIVE INDUSTRIALIZATION PLAN; Revitalization of structures like CELLUCAM, SACHERIE, AGRO-INDUSTRIES etc etc
3rd YEAR: TRANSFER OF CAPITAL OF CAMEROON FROM YAOUNDE TO EBEBDA (Sanaga Bridge near BAFIA). For those who don't realize it, Yaounde will be unsustainable and completely ungovernable because of lack of planning and adequate modern infrastructure in the next 5 - 10 years. Right now, nothing can be done except remove Government Institutions from there. Try to drive between Biyem-Assi and Mballa II and you come back and tell me that I am exaggerating.
Our goal is to get as many Cameroonians as possible to be gainfully employed. As you can imagine, our ambitious program as estimated by some economic and financial analysts will generate no less than four million well paying and seasonal jobs. I know some will ask me: Mishe le Premier Ministre; Where are you going to get the MONEY to embark on such a gargantuan project? My answer is very simple: Just make me that Prime Minister and give me the power and leverage. I need only six months to transform that country. No more no less.
From: "Agbor Enow Augustine Enow007@yahoo.com [camnetwork]" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>
To: "camnetwork@yahoogroups.com" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>; "suhade@yahoo.com" <suhade@yahoo.com>
Cc: Cameroon Politics <cameroon_politics@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Friday, November 28, 2014 12:07 PM
Subject: Re: [camnetwork] RE: HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
Dear Mr. Fon,
Growth and development are the kinds of important topic that Diaspora Cameroon should spend time discussing and analyzing, but all that members of most Cameroonian fora regurgitate is the same old same old irrelevant talking points. Cameroon is nowhere near an N-11 country, let alone an emerging economy even by 2050. Emerging economies like Brazil, China, India Turkey, and Mexico did not just got up one morning and announce that we want to be an emerging economy by this time. They formulated and implemented the right policies to put them where they are today. A railway from East Africa to Cameroon will help China and the West transport their harvested looted natural resources, but African nations like Cameroon will not benefit if the current institutional voids are ongoing.
What separates emerging market economies from other developing economies include a sizable and sophisticated domestic demand, and rapid rates of economic growth and development. Also, they have political and economic institutions capable of supporting an expanding free-market economy, extended human capital base, and the ability to absorb and assimilate new technologies, especially innovative technologies that improve the productivity of capital and labor.
In Cameroon, local demand is small and weak, and political and economic institutions are there to serve the parochial and patrimonial interest of Paul Biya and a few elites. Furthermore, we have a very short human capital base, and the country lacks technological innovation; all because our education system is not robust enough to produce the skills required to compete in the 21st century. The best competitive strength of firms in Cameroon is government protection, and the control of local distribution channels by a few cartels, since foreign companies cannot fully access the market due to poor infrastructure.
If the government of Cameroon is ready to force itself out of underdevelopment, it has to hire and train young experts who can compete globally. The government should also, get rid of the coffins of dead men in the parliament, senate and ministries. In the 21st century, to compete, Cameroon must stop relying solely on supply-side economic development policies. That is, the use of subsidies and tax incentives to lure potential investors; compete with other neighboring countries for existing FDI opportunities available; and following the private sector by allowing it to decide where to invest in the country, and what to produce and sell.
While all the above may help to lower production costs, most countries are competing on lowering the costs of their factors of production, so it has become very difficult to compete on reducing your production factors. Cameroon should jump-start a demand-side developmental framework. That is, rather than relying on factors that lower the costs of production, the government will have to find means to discover, develop, expand, or create new markets to sell her goods.
But hold on FEN, before we talk about finding new markets, we should have goods to market first. In 2012, Cameroon's export totaled 908.30billion francs CFA and CFA 1,504.40billion of imported goods, the -243.50 trade deficit means we are producing far less than we consume. It is time for our government to pay focus on small businesses and latent entrepreneurs while strategically support the creation of new enterprises. What locational advantage do firms have if they relocate or open a new factory in Cameroon? If Dunning's Eclectic theory is anything to go by, such locational advantages would include improving sales demand and potential demand, making sure that we harmonize our cultural, economic, political, and legal environment with that of potential investors.
Let end here FEN. While miracles happen and I believe in Miracles, the current economic state of Cameroon does not portray a country that will become an emerging economy by 2035. For Cameroon to join even the N-11 countries by 2035, something dramatic like the death of Biya must happen, and a replacement that is ready to work for Cameroon put in place.
Augustine Agbor Enow
Growth and development are the kinds of important topic that Diaspora Cameroon should spend time discussing and analyzing, but all that members of most Cameroonian fora regurgitate is the same old same old irrelevant talking points. Cameroon is nowhere near an N-11 country, let alone an emerging economy even by 2050. Emerging economies like Brazil, China, India Turkey, and Mexico did not just got up one morning and announce that we want to be an emerging economy by this time. They formulated and implemented the right policies to put them where they are today. A railway from East Africa to Cameroon will help China and the West transport their harvested looted natural resources, but African nations like Cameroon will not benefit if the current institutional voids are ongoing.
What separates emerging market economies from other developing economies include a sizable and sophisticated domestic demand, and rapid rates of economic growth and development. Also, they have political and economic institutions capable of supporting an expanding free-market economy, extended human capital base, and the ability to absorb and assimilate new technologies, especially innovative technologies that improve the productivity of capital and labor.
In Cameroon, local demand is small and weak, and political and economic institutions are there to serve the parochial and patrimonial interest of Paul Biya and a few elites. Furthermore, we have a very short human capital base, and the country lacks technological innovation; all because our education system is not robust enough to produce the skills required to compete in the 21st century. The best competitive strength of firms in Cameroon is government protection, and the control of local distribution channels by a few cartels, since foreign companies cannot fully access the market due to poor infrastructure.
If the government of Cameroon is ready to force itself out of underdevelopment, it has to hire and train young experts who can compete globally. The government should also, get rid of the coffins of dead men in the parliament, senate and ministries. In the 21st century, to compete, Cameroon must stop relying solely on supply-side economic development policies. That is, the use of subsidies and tax incentives to lure potential investors; compete with other neighboring countries for existing FDI opportunities available; and following the private sector by allowing it to decide where to invest in the country, and what to produce and sell.
While all the above may help to lower production costs, most countries are competing on lowering the costs of their factors of production, so it has become very difficult to compete on reducing your production factors. Cameroon should jump-start a demand-side developmental framework. That is, rather than relying on factors that lower the costs of production, the government will have to find means to discover, develop, expand, or create new markets to sell her goods.
But hold on FEN, before we talk about finding new markets, we should have goods to market first. In 2012, Cameroon's export totaled 908.30billion francs CFA and CFA 1,504.40billion of imported goods, the -243.50 trade deficit means we are producing far less than we consume. It is time for our government to pay focus on small businesses and latent entrepreneurs while strategically support the creation of new enterprises. What locational advantage do firms have if they relocate or open a new factory in Cameroon? If Dunning's Eclectic theory is anything to go by, such locational advantages would include improving sales demand and potential demand, making sure that we harmonize our cultural, economic, political, and legal environment with that of potential investors.
Let end here FEN. While miracles happen and I believe in Miracles, the current economic state of Cameroon does not portray a country that will become an emerging economy by 2035. For Cameroon to join even the N-11 countries by 2035, something dramatic like the death of Biya must happen, and a replacement that is ready to work for Cameroon put in place.
Augustine Agbor Enow
The outcome of my life is not more than three lines:
I was a raw material
I became mature and cooked
And I was burned into nothingness.
Rumi
I was a raw material
I became mature and cooked
And I was burned into nothingness.
Rumi
On Friday, November 28, 2014 6:55 AM, "Divine Rhyme hittback@yahoo.com [camnetwork]" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Hello Martin,
We don't have to be bickering over this thing. I am just an ordinary interested citizen in the project because of its unprecedented size on the African continent and more so the strange involvement of Cameroon in it. The last time Cameroon got involved in anything of global importance as an important participant was when it reached quarter finals at the world cup competitions in 1990. You are right not to habour or express any kind of excitement in any such thing involving Cameroon, but the truth is that the project is huge enough to transform the fortunes of any country which has a major role to play in it like Cameroon.
The good thing about this issue is that the CPDM government will not outlive Cameroon. Cameroon will outlive it and some good is therefore in our horizons be it Cameroon as a unitary state or with Southern Cameroons breaking off to an independent state. The days of the CPDM as a political force in Cameroon are numbered. They did that to themselves because it will take more then CPDM itself to rehabilitate that party in Cameroon. Whatever they are doing now in terms of re-organizing the party structures and trying to recreate it into a real political party that can honestly compete with any other in the country, would only last as long as Mr Biya himself remains in power. After he leaves the scene that will be the end of the CPDM as a political force even though some people will try to keep its embers burning as they have started now. This was a party borne out of no political convictions except for the main reason of spiting Ahidjo and his CNU. And in fact it has lived up to that reputation. For its 30+ years in power, compounded with a gaping void in any area of development in the entire country, no one can actually put a finger on anything that resembles a party policy in their manner of governance. Their governance over the years has been consistent in nothing - rolling along the social and economic current of a nation drifting rudderless to nowhere. One cannot really say if it was the natural evolution of the Cameroonian people which a blind party claimed to be leading or if it was the party following this evolution. It had to be one or the other because the CPDM government only reacted when it could not refuse to do anything for the people. It never built schools, but when forced will allow classrooms to be built without any plan for the school. It never repaired or constructed new roads, hospitals, airports etc, but would grudgingly execute any if boxed in a corner. So without a clear cut policy on anything one wonders if it was the natural evolutionary trends of society which the government blindly cowered behind or the society following the blind and rudderless government of the CPDM
So I see potential as soon as the CPDM quits the scene. They will and that will not even be through the determined effort of Cameroonians. The CPDM will just extinguish itself after their leadership quits. Is is a party that decided to create and deify one single individual as the Alpha and Omega of the party. I wonder how they can change that overnight.
I will agree with you but just to a very small degree that the Kribi Port is totally a government initiative. I don't know how governments start and end discussions on partnering on issues like these, but from what I have read, the Kribi port has a lot of foreign influence in its coming into existence. Just follow this link. It is a more authoritative source and I agree with them. It simply makes sense to me.
FEN
From: "Martin Tumasang tumasangm@hotmail.com [camnetwork]" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>
To: "camnetwork@yahoogroups.com" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>; "suhade@yahoo.com" <suhade@yahoo.com>
Sent: Friday, November 28, 2014 11:55 AM
Subject: RE: [camnetwork] RE: HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
Hi FEN,
thanks for your below mail. If this project had Zaire with all the copper and other minerals as a terminus, or Nigeria in terms of oil & gas, it could perhaps had made some economic sense to me.
Again perhaps the hope is this trans-shipment of goods from Europe and America to Kenya that would make the project viable. I never thought of that I must admit.
On Kribi, be not fooled, it is being shaped in the manner and shape of the lion at the head called Biya. Douala dredging for years has pushed Cameroon to breaking point, large ships with high TEUs cannot come to Douala and it is giving Cameroon sleepless nights as Cotonou flourishes, Lekkki Deep Seaport in Lagos is being built, and the high performing Governor of Akwa Ibom is building another deep seaport in Akwa Ibom, and Ghana is building yet another. These projects had the potential to kill Douala as an international seaport for Chad and Central Africa hence Biya had to do something.
Biya wants Central Africa, and Chadian goods to come to Cameroon ports not Nigerian or Benin Republic ports for economic and political influence reasons and Douala was and is congested and almost a failure. They were in desperate need of a deep seaport and in the manner of their being, they would rather die than depend on Victoria so they conjured Kribi.
To attract goods to Kribi away from Nigeria, and Cotonou, a deep port of over 16 draught has to be in place, and also local infrastructure i.e. roads to link the port.
Biya got the plans of the port and town drawn, got a loan from China with Chinese companies to build and bingo you have Kribi with a port and infrastructure like roads to take goods to Chad, Central Africa etc., and internal roads to help develop a town that is sustainable and known in the subregion as a major port city.
The above is the beginning and end of the story. Land Bridge or not, the development of Kribi has been and is still a local Cameroonian initiative born out of the failure of the Douala port in terms of dredging and congestion, competition from Nigeira and Cotonou, and even Ghana and also high iron ore and other minerals found in the Eastern region of late.
Regards
Tumasang
To: camnetwork@yahoogroups.com; suhade@yahoo.com
From: camnetwork@yahoogroups.com
Date: Fri, 28 Nov 2014 10:34:54 +0000
Subject: Re: [camnetwork] RE: HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
From: "Martin Tumasang tumasangm@hotmail.com [camnetwork]" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>
To: "camnetwork@yahoogroups.com" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>; "suhade@yahoo.com" <suhade@yahoo.com>
Sent: Friday, November 28, 2014 8:17 AM
Subject: [camnetwork] RE: HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
thanks for your below mail. If this project had Zaire with all the copper and other minerals as a terminus, or Nigeria in terms of oil & gas, it could perhaps had made some economic sense to me.
Again perhaps the hope is this trans-shipment of goods from Europe and America to Kenya that would make the project viable. I never thought of that I must admit.
On Kribi, be not fooled, it is being shaped in the manner and shape of the lion at the head called Biya. Douala dredging for years has pushed Cameroon to breaking point, large ships with high TEUs cannot come to Douala and it is giving Cameroon sleepless nights as Cotonou flourishes, Lekkki Deep Seaport in Lagos is being built, and the high performing Governor of Akwa Ibom is building another deep seaport in Akwa Ibom, and Ghana is building yet another. These projects had the potential to kill Douala as an international seaport for Chad and Central Africa hence Biya had to do something.
Biya wants Central Africa, and Chadian goods to come to Cameroon ports not Nigerian or Benin Republic ports for economic and political influence reasons and Douala was and is congested and almost a failure. They were in desperate need of a deep seaport and in the manner of their being, they would rather die than depend on Victoria so they conjured Kribi.
To attract goods to Kribi away from Nigeria, and Cotonou, a deep port of over 16 draught has to be in place, and also local infrastructure i.e. roads to link the port.
Biya got the plans of the port and town drawn, got a loan from China with Chinese companies to build and bingo you have Kribi with a port and infrastructure like roads to take goods to Chad, Central Africa etc., and internal roads to help develop a town that is sustainable and known in the subregion as a major port city.
The above is the beginning and end of the story. Land Bridge or not, the development of Kribi has been and is still a local Cameroonian initiative born out of the failure of the Douala port in terms of dredging and congestion, competition from Nigeira and Cotonou, and even Ghana and also high iron ore and other minerals found in the Eastern region of late.
Regards
Tumasang
To: camnetwork@yahoogroups.com; suhade@yahoo.com
From: camnetwork@yahoogroups.com
Date: Fri, 28 Nov 2014 10:34:54 +0000
Subject: Re: [camnetwork] RE: HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
Hello Martin,
I am glad your response is no longer a challenge to the sanity of my interest in the project. You have made a valid point - about the East African part of the project. I am sure you must have come across documentation about how advanced they have gone with LAPSSET which is supposed to be part of the entire deal. But I am still surprised that you did not mention the huge oil potential of Nigeria which the Chinese cannot ignore. They cannot equally ignore the vast and diversified resources in the DRC. But from what I read, what you tried to object to is exactly what the state holders are also hinging the success of the project on i.e using the railway line to save time and money as ships currently have to leave West Africa sail down to the Cape of Good Hope and then to India and China - and then vice versa. I cannot say I have expert knowledge on such massive transportation challenges in the world, but it made simple common sense to me when experts describe it in articles complete with figures, projections and most importantly the interest potential customers have in the project. These customers are not just ignorant and passive admirers of the projects but are willing to be partners so as to be able to get a piece of the pie both ways. Yes, as expected the Central and West African side of the project has not gone as far as that of Eastern Africa but Martin I went to Kribi and it seems like the whole Town is being rebuilt. There is no way Cameroon CPDM government would want to put such effort in transforming one coastal town because a seaport is being built there.The CPDM government does not think in such terms.Yes the Central and West African part of the project is lagging behind but that is not what Kribi is telling me. And if you had made these points three months ago before I visited Kribi I wouldn't have bothered to contradict you because what you say still makes a lot of sense to anybody less informed than you on the matter. Unfortunately the points you raised had been adequately dealt with and dismissed by stakeholders and experts - who are in no shortage so far as this project is concerned. From what I saw going on in Kribi, it might not be what you will see when a city in the west is undergoing a massive overhaul. But if you put this side by side with the CPDM track record in Cameroon for the last 32 years, it raises eyebrows. But the East African part of the project is visibly advanced in planning and execution probably because of the LAPSSET plan. The West and Central African side of the project does not have this kind of regional attachment to it and I think a well Kribi equipped port and the road and railway system into CAR and the beyond is all they are concerned with for the moment.
Initially this project seemed to be the brainchild of the Kenyan government and the Chinese were simply co-opted into it what they(the Kenyans)d were looking for money to execute such an ambitious project. But in diplomacy to co-op a partner nation into something can just be a polite camouflage as to who actually initiated expressed interest in the whole thing. In fact it could actually be a Kenyan initiative but I don't see how it could not have been the Chinese who diplomatically "suggested" that the Kenyans should come up with such a dream and they - the Chinese would throw their weight behind it.
FEN
From: "Martin Tumasang tumasangm@hotmail.com [camnetwork]" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>
To: "camnetwork@yahoogroups.com" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>; "suhade@yahoo.com" <suhade@yahoo.com>
Sent: Friday, November 28, 2014 8:17 AM
Subject: [camnetwork] RE: HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
Hi FEN,
good morning on this Friday morning.
"Tumasang for some reason best known to him is trying to downplay it but I can only guess that it is because he was not the one who brought it up". Dixit FEN
I still do not understand why you cannot at least theoretically see my apprehension about this Land Bridge Project as it relates to the Central African side of it.
I have looked at it in terms of inter central Africa trade and in terms of Central Africa-East Africa trade and still the sums do not add up. There is no business to make the Land Bridge viable.
The transportation of petroleum products perhaps could have made some sense if there was an abundance of it in the countries being connected in Central Africa and non of it in East Africa but that is not the case. Cameroon, Chad, etc. have very little oil and large oil and gas deposits are instead being discovered in East Africa. SONARA gets its oil from Nigeria and it would not be viable to buy crude in East Africa and rail transport to refine in SONARA. The maths does not add up.
I must concede that you brought a point I did not consider which took me by surprise and made me to try to reassess the Land Bridge Project. I am talking about your point about Trans-shipment i.e. where ships could bring goods from the Americas to Kribi, offload them unto trains, rail transport them to Kenya, load on another ship in Kenya and take to Asia.
If the above is done in large scale then, and only then might the Land Bridge be viable but I doubt if it is going to happen. We all know a place like Tangiers in Morocco is doing brisk business as a trans-shipment port, where containers from Europe and America and brought there, and offloaded unto local ships that ply the African coast, and these ships take the containers to their destinations like Douala where large ships needing a draught of about 16 m or more cannot come.
Despite this, I am not sure the system has been developed in the world where trans-shipment involves rail travel through many countries and then re-shipping in another port. I am not sure if any exist at present. I can understand the containers from ships in Kribi being transferred on rail wagons since these are generally locked in a secure manner, but I cannot understand how this will be done for roro roro to be honest.
Imagine a car that is brought roro roro on a ship to Kribi and transferred from the ship in Kribi to the train passing through bandit countries like Cameroon, Chad, Sudan etc. By the time the cars reach Kenya to be put roro roro on another ship to Asia, only the shell of the car will remain after all the parts have been stripped in Cameroon, Chad, Sudan etc. These bandit countries cannot permit the Land Bridge trans-shipment project to work.
Please, FEN, I have my genuine problems with the Land Bridge Project and these have nothing to do with the fact that it was not brought to the forum by me. The Central African side of the project does not add up.
Regards
Tumasang
To: camnetwork@yahoogroups.com; suhade@yahoo.com
From: camnetwork@yahoogroups.com
Date: Thu, 27 Nov 2014 19:34:30 +0000
Subject: Re: [camnetwork] HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
From: "'suhade@yahoo.com' suhade@yahoo.com [camnetwork]" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>
To: "camnetwork@yahoogroups.com" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 27, 2014 5:59 PM
Subject: Re: [camnetwork] HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
From: Divine Rhyme hittback@yahoo.com [camnetwork] <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>;
To: camnetwork@yahoogroups.com <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>;
Subject: Re: [camnetwork] HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
Sent: Thu, Nov 27, 2014 4:29:59 PM
good morning on this Friday morning.
"Tumasang for some reason best known to him is trying to downplay it but I can only guess that it is because he was not the one who brought it up". Dixit FEN
I still do not understand why you cannot at least theoretically see my apprehension about this Land Bridge Project as it relates to the Central African side of it.
I have looked at it in terms of inter central Africa trade and in terms of Central Africa-East Africa trade and still the sums do not add up. There is no business to make the Land Bridge viable.
The transportation of petroleum products perhaps could have made some sense if there was an abundance of it in the countries being connected in Central Africa and non of it in East Africa but that is not the case. Cameroon, Chad, etc. have very little oil and large oil and gas deposits are instead being discovered in East Africa. SONARA gets its oil from Nigeria and it would not be viable to buy crude in East Africa and rail transport to refine in SONARA. The maths does not add up.
I must concede that you brought a point I did not consider which took me by surprise and made me to try to reassess the Land Bridge Project. I am talking about your point about Trans-shipment i.e. where ships could bring goods from the Americas to Kribi, offload them unto trains, rail transport them to Kenya, load on another ship in Kenya and take to Asia.
If the above is done in large scale then, and only then might the Land Bridge be viable but I doubt if it is going to happen. We all know a place like Tangiers in Morocco is doing brisk business as a trans-shipment port, where containers from Europe and America and brought there, and offloaded unto local ships that ply the African coast, and these ships take the containers to their destinations like Douala where large ships needing a draught of about 16 m or more cannot come.
Despite this, I am not sure the system has been developed in the world where trans-shipment involves rail travel through many countries and then re-shipping in another port. I am not sure if any exist at present. I can understand the containers from ships in Kribi being transferred on rail wagons since these are generally locked in a secure manner, but I cannot understand how this will be done for roro roro to be honest.
Imagine a car that is brought roro roro on a ship to Kribi and transferred from the ship in Kribi to the train passing through bandit countries like Cameroon, Chad, Sudan etc. By the time the cars reach Kenya to be put roro roro on another ship to Asia, only the shell of the car will remain after all the parts have been stripped in Cameroon, Chad, Sudan etc. These bandit countries cannot permit the Land Bridge trans-shipment project to work.
Please, FEN, I have my genuine problems with the Land Bridge Project and these have nothing to do with the fact that it was not brought to the forum by me. The Central African side of the project does not add up.
Regards
Tumasang
To: camnetwork@yahoogroups.com; suhade@yahoo.com
From: camnetwork@yahoogroups.com
Date: Thu, 27 Nov 2014 19:34:30 +0000
Subject: Re: [camnetwork] HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
Hello SAF,
Indeed I am surprised that you seem never to have heard about this thing. Tumasang for some reason best known to him is trying to downplay it but I can only guess that it is because he was not the one who brought it up. This project is comparable in importance to the Pannma and Suez canals and the great Trans Siberian Railway project. I am not the one who made these comparisons because I don't have the technical skills and information to evaluate anything like this. But if engineers, economists, politicians describe a project as one of the greatest transportation revolution in the world economy, I think it must be true. It is not like a CPDM economist decides to boost Mr Biya's image by shouting about how many schools has been built during his reign. These are independent analysts who have nothing to gain from the project. Too many major players are involved for any one ordinary person to consider he /she can exploit it for personal gains. With all the ships that will be coming to the Kribi port and have to be using the Victoria shipyard for servicing, Victoria must be able have a face lift economically. I don't want to get into why Kribi was chosen in place of Victoria but all I can say is that the impact of this project and the stake holders involved greatly influenced the Cameroon government to reverse its decision and chose Kribi instead of Victoria. I think most Anglophones would feel bad about the decision and rightly so. But who knows if the pressure was beyond the Cameroon government.Unfortunately the level of bad faith with which the the francophone government has been dealing with Anglophone Cameroon can never convince anybody that they did not make this reversal themselves and international pressure is not to blame.
So SAF just read on and if interested google and read more publications on it. What I cannot understand is why many people are not aware of it. However we have been so used to stagnation in such a way that any talk of a dramatic turn around in the fortunes of Cameroon can easily be dismissed by Cameroonians.
FENFrom: "'suhade@yahoo.com' suhade@yahoo.com [camnetwork]" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>
To: "camnetwork@yahoogroups.com" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 27, 2014 5:59 PM
Subject: Re: [camnetwork] HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
FEN Thanks. If you notice I am using my cell phone. It is not easy reading the info on the link with my cell phone. I now can see the benefits of the project. It just seems to me Douala should have been the logical western terminus. SAF |
From: Divine Rhyme hittback@yahoo.com [camnetwork] <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>;
To: camnetwork@yahoogroups.com <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>;
Subject: Re: [camnetwork] HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
Sent: Thu, Nov 27, 2014 4:29:59 PM
| SAF, Have you opened and read what is in the link? If you have are you you seriously ask what the Chinese stand to gain from this? Are you kidding or just trying to be funny? Find out how long it takes for a ship to navigate from west Africa to the Indian ocean through thr Cape of Good Hope and compare it with the time it will take when the goods are offloaded at Kribi and transported by rail to Lamu in Kenya - then you will start seeing the tip of what advantages this will have in time and cost. Somebody just mentioned that while in East Africa there might be high volume of transportation to make this a viable economic investment, he is not so sure about West Africa. But he forgot to know that shipping companies from North and South America will have a choice to make between going through the Suez canal or using the rail from West Africa. The Chinese are not eying only curtailing on shipping time and costs. There is a lot they want from all of Africa into the Indian Ocean and then to China..There is too much at stake here SAF FENFrom: "'suhade@yahoo.com' suhade@yahoo.com [camnetwork]" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com> To: "camnetwork@yahoogroups.com" <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com> Sent: Thursday, November 27, 2014 4:53 PM Subject: Re: [camnetwork] HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION
From: Divine Rhyme hittback@yahoo.com [camnetwork] <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>; To: camnetwork@yahoogroups.com <camnetwork@yahoogroups.com>; Subject: Re: [camnetwork] HOW THE PREFERENCE OF KRIBI AS OPPOSED TO VICTORIA FOR THE DEEP SEAPORT WAS NOT A CAMEROON GOVERNMENT DECISION Sent: Thu, Nov 27, 2014 3:01:08 PM
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